Will it really come to a war?
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is used to being in the middle of the controversy. The man who caused outrage when he delivered his speech at the United Nations on 2010 (referring to the September 11th attacks insensitively), has embarked his regime on a “war of words” with Washington regarding the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz (between the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf).
The argument has its foundations on the United States of America (and its allies) condemnation of Iran’s nuclear programme, which led to the approval of an oil embargo on the Islamic republic by the European Union (EU). However, earlier this month, Ahmadinejad during an exclusive interview with Mexican reporter Carlos Loret de Mola, denied a war with the USA is in the cards: “We believe there will be reasonable people in America who can stop this”, he said.
Iran gets 80% of its revenue from crude exports, of which most are destined for China and other Asian countries.The effects of the EU sanctions against Tehran will be felt in the next few months.
If any disruption happens regarding the sale of Iranian oil, the Strait of Hormuz will definitely be closed: Mohammad Kossari (deputy head of parliament’s foreign affairs and national security committee).
The Strait of Hormuz need to remain open and we need to maintain this as an international passageway (…) we will do what needs to be done to ensure that is the case: Ivo Daalder (USA Ambassador to NATO in Brussels).
More quotes on this matter can be found in the article by Traynor and Hopkins (The Guardian).
It seems clear there is a huge controversy between Washington and Tehran, however, it is not necessarily a sign of an impending violent conflict. Disputes have always existed among nations but it is the ability to avoid an armed conflict what makes diplomats and politicians great, not the capability to fire away and spill blood.
I hope both regimes will find a way to solve their differences and rid the world of another tragic and shameful episode. History tells us the USA are not too keen on this idea.
January 23rd, 2012.